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Professor Nico Keilman from the University of Oslo visited ADRI, SHU


    On May 20th, Professor Nico Keilman from the Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Norway, visited the Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI) at Shanghai University. Professor Keilman holds an MSc in applied Mathematics from Delft University of Technology, and a PhD in Demography from the University of Utrecht. He has worked for more than thirty years in the fields of mathematical demography, modelling of household dynamics, and forecasting methodology. His current interest is in the link between period and cohort mortality.

    At ADRI, Professor Keilman gave a talk on “Probabilistic household and living arrangement forecasts.” The event was hosted by Professor Samir KC, leader of the human capital and development pillar at ADRI. Professor Keilman first discussed the shortcomings of deterministic forecasting models and explained why probabilistic household and living arrangement forecasts are necessary for informed decision-making. Next, he reviewed probabilistic household forecasts published since the turn of the century, and he introduced the notion of a scoring function. Finally, he provided empirical results for scoring functions applied to the first known probabilistic household forecasts. After the presentation, there was a discussion among participants about how scoring functions are applied in various contexts.