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Dr. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski from the University of Manchester visited ADRI


    On Nov. 2nd, Dr. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski from the University of Manchester visited Asian Demography Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University. He joined the Social Statistics Department at the University of Manchester as a Lecturer in August 2015. Previously, he worked as a Research Fellow at the ESRC Centre for Population Change and Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, among other positions.

    At ADRI, Dr. Wiśniowski gave a presentation on "Uncertainty in migration forecasting" and discussed Bayesian hierarchical models for combining data from various sources and quantifying uncertainty in migration forecasts. Dr. Wiśniowski argued that the need for better migration forecasts can be addressed in two ways: firstly, by combining data from various sources such as official statistics from various countries, surveys and social media data; and secondly, using a Bayesian inferential framework that allows for providing estimates of model parameters and forecasts with measures of uncertainty.

    The participants in this event took great interest in the Bayesian inferential framework and exchanged their ideas after the presentation. They discussed the definition of selected samples, especially samples drawn from public media sources. Students also raised several questions on the seasonal differences in migration in the case study, as well as the possibility of applying the method to data on China.