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Talk: Using microsimulation methods for multidimensional population projections




主持人:Samir KC,上海大学亚洲人口研究中心人力资本方向负责人,教授

主讲人:Guillaume Marois, 国际应用系统分析协会研究员

Dr. Guillaume Marois joined the World Population Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) as a research scholar in 2016. He completed his PhD in demography at the National Institute for Scientific Research (Montreal, Canada) in 2014. His main research interests include demographic projections, microsimulation, education, labour force participation, immigration and domestic mobility. Before joining IIASA, Dr. Marois was a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of urbanism of the University of Montreal (Canada). From 2008 to 2012, he worked as a research officer at the Quebec Statistical Institute (Canada).

讲座简介 Abstract

Microsimulation is a powerful tool that can be used to make population projections when the number of dimensions becomes large, because statistical models are used to project life-course transitions and events. In this first part of this presentation, microsimulation methods are introduced with basic examples of modeling and comparisons with cohort component method. In the second part, the microsimulation model developed for the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration is presented, with a focus on the education and labour force participation modules. Because the microsimulation model includes a large set of dimensions (age, sex, country, education, labour force participation, language, religion, immigrant status, place of birth, duration of stay, age at immigration, education of the mother, etc.), a large range of analytical scenarios that go beyond traditional demographic scenarios are possible. Among others, this microsimulation model is used to analyze how reducing differentials in education and labor force participation could lessen workforce decline in the European Union.