Position: Home > Event > Past Events >

Talk: Using microsimulation methods for multidimensional population projections

讲座时间:2018919日,星期三,10:00-11:30am

讲座地点:东区2号楼社会学院516

主办单位:上海大学亚洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所

主持人:Samir KC,上海大学亚洲人口研究中心人力资本方向负责人,教授

主讲人:Guillaume Marois, 国际应用系统分析协会研究员


Dr. Guillaume Marois joined the World Population Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) as a research scholar in 2016. He completed his PhD in demography at the National Institute for Scientific Research (Montreal, Canada) in 2014. His main research interests include demographic projections, microsimulation, education, labour force participation, immigration and domestic mobility. Before joining IIASA, Dr. Marois was a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of urbanism of the University of Montreal (Canada). From 2008 to 2012, he worked as a research officer at the Quebec Statistical Institute (Canada).

讲座简介 Abstract

Microsimulation is a powerful tool that can be used to make population projections when the number of dimensions becomes large, because statistical models are used to project life-course transitions and events. In this first part of this presentation, microsimulation methods are introduced with basic examples of modeling and comparisons with cohort component method. In the second part, the microsimulation model developed for the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration is presented, with a focus on the education and labour force participation modules. Because the microsimulation model includes a large set of dimensions (age, sex, country, education, labour force participation, language, religion, immigrant status, place of birth, duration of stay, age at immigration, education of the mother, etc.), a large range of analytical scenarios that go beyond traditional demographic scenarios are possible. Among others, this microsimulation model is used to analyze how reducing differentials in education and labor force participation could lessen workforce decline in the European Union.

微观分析模型是一种非常强大的工具。当人口规模变得越来越大的时候,我们可以使用这种模型进行人口预测,因为数据模型本身就是用来反映或映射生命历程的转化和生命事件的。在此次讲座的开始,会首先用几个基本的模型作为例子,引入微观分析模型,同时将该模型与人口变动要素方法进行对比。随后,将会介绍为人口和移民研究中心开发的微观分析模型,将重点分析该模型的教育和劳动力参与率部分。因为微观分析模型包含一系列的维度,如年龄、性别、国家、教育、劳动力参与、语言、宗教、移民情况、出生地、停留时间、不同年龄迁移情况和母亲的教育状况等。对这一系列变量的分析有可能超越传统的人口学关于这些维度的研究。在该模型的其他应用中,这一微观分析模型可以用来分析如何减少人口受教育水平教育和劳动力参与的差异以减缓欧盟劳动力不断下降趋势的影响。