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Seminar:Brian O'Neill--How much climate change is too much? Understanding risks

  题:How much climate change is too much?--Understanding risks to populations and society

气候变化的“生命不能承受之轻”——理解气候变化对人与社会的潜在威胁

主讲人: Brian O’Neil 教授

主持人:蒋耒文,上海大学社会学院教授

主办单位:上海大学亚洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所

讲座时间:2018年7月4日星期三, 10:00-11:30am

讲座地点:上海大学东区社会学院大楼308

主讲人简介:

O’Neil教授在学术界理解未来社会发展、碳排放和气候变化的关系中起着主导作用。他领导美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的综合评估建模(IAM)小组,也是NCAR气候与人类系统项目的首席科学家。同时,他也是国际应用系统分析(IIASA)和布朗大学教授的人口和气候变化项目主任,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)正在进行的第六次评估报告的召集人,并担任剑桥大学出版社的《人口与气候变化》期刊的主要作者。

Prof. O'Neill has been playing a leading role globally in understanding the relationship between future societal development, emissions, and climate change impacts. He leads the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and is also Chief Scientist of NCAR’s Climate and Human Systems Project. He was director of Population and Climate Change Program at International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) and Professor at Brown University. He is a Convening Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s ongoing Sixth Assessment Report. He is also the lead author of Population and Climate Change, published by Cambridge University Press.

讲座介绍:

2015年, 195个国家在巴黎就气候变化问题达成了新的长期目标,希望将全球平均变暖限制在2摄氏度以下,并争取即将标准提高到1.5摄氏度。这一事件再次激发了学术界对气候变化结果以及对不同社会影响的研究兴趣。对于气候变化在不同情况下(全球变暖1.5、2、3度或以上)会对社会造成的风险,我们了解多少呢?在此,我总结了美国国家大气研究中心的最新研究,这些研究探究了全球平均气温上升对健康、农业和能源部门的影响。该项目还研究了未来社会的变化所带来的风险,包括人口、收入和消费模式的变化。最后,我将讨论政府间气候变化专门委员会最新的评估,即气候变化所带来的风险如何随变暖程度的变化而变化,并确定我们依然需要探索的知识领域。

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with different levels of global warming. How much do we know about the risks climate change poses to society if the world warms by 1.5, 2, or 3 degrees or more? I summarize recent research coordinated by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research that examines how impacts on health, agriculture, and the energy sector vary with the level of global average warming. This project also examined how risks depend on future changes in society, including changes in population, income, and consumption patterns. Finally, I discuss the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of how key climate risks vary with different levels of warming, and identify current gaps in our knowledge.