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Seminar:ARKADIUSZ WISNIOWSKI--Uncertainty in Migration Forecasting Data,Methods

题目:对出生性别比的系统性评估和基于场景的预测&按家庭经济状况估计的5岁以下儿童死亡率

主讲人:ARKADIUSZ WISNIOWSKI,曼彻斯特大学讲师

主持人:Guy Abel,上海大学亚洲人口研究中心国际移民方向负责人,教授

讲座时间:2018年11月2日,星期五,10:00-11:30am

讲座地点:东区2号楼社会学院516

主办单位:上海大学亚洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所

讲座主题: Title: Uncertainty in migration forecasting – data, methods and challenges

讲座简介:International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the most influential component of population growth and in debates about societal and economic change. The need for better migration forecasts can be addressed, firstly, by combining data from various sources such as official statistics from various countries, surveys and social media data. Secondly, Bayesian inferential framework allows providing estimates of model parameters and forecasts with measures of uncertainty. In this presentation, a selection of Bayesian hierarchical models for combining data from various sources and quantifying uncertainty in migration forecasts will be described.

主讲人简介:

Arkadiusz Wiśniowski joined Social Statistics Department as a Lecturer in August 2015. Previously, he worked as a Research Fellow at the ESRC Centre for Population Change and Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University, Researcher at the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research in Warsaw, and Teaching and Research Assistant at the Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.